April 28, 2011

RELAX !!!!

Original Post: March 15th, 2011

To all those that are threatened from the Islamic currents that we see today, I say RELAX !! It's not half as bad as you think. Let's do the math:

In 2005 when we had semi-representative parliamentary elections, the Muslim Brotherhood got 88 / 520 seats. That's around 17%. Have those elections been forged? Were deals cut with the NDP at the time? Possibly.. Let's put a safety margin of 100%, they could have had 170 seats, that would represent around 34%.

Now, consider this, in 2005 a fraction of a fraction of the population had voted (around 6 million people if I remember correctly). Those who voted for the MB represented 100% of the Brotherhood's fire power. More than 80% of eligible voters, did not vote (including 10 - 14 Million copts). All those 80% are by definition not MB loyalists, because otherwise they would have gone down and voted for them (that's how the MB works, when they need voters, they mobilize 100% of their members).

This means that the MB have a real penetration of 35% (which already includes a safety margin of 100%) out of 20% (which actually voted) that's equal to 7% effective penetration. If you want to be cautious and consider that only 50% of eligible voters will participate in upcoming elections, then their penetration would grow to around 14%.

Need more? There you go..

In 2005, the MB represented 17% of a total of 6 Million voters.. that's about 1 Million MB voters. For safety let's calculate twice as much.. consider 2 Million followers. If only Christian voters (who were previously inactive) go to the polls, they should represent 5 - 7 Million voters (around 3 times as much as the MB). Now, if only 50% of eligible Christian voters hit the polls they will represent 3 Million voters, or 1.5 times the number of MB loyalists. That, in itself would grow the pool of voters to 9 Million (up from 6 Million) of which the MB will represent only 2 Million or 22%. Again in this calculation I'm assuming that the MB are twice as many as they were in 2005 and that only Christians voters would be added to the pool (and again only 50% of those voters will actually vote).

So, if you take all those numbers you would be looking at a worst case scenario of about 35% (twice as much as 2005) and a best case scenario of around 7%. And both figures are based on twice the percentage of seats the MB got in 2005.

The only trick here, is that we ALL have to vote !!!!

Just don't tell them that :))

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